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今天小编给大家分享的是论文精读系列15。欢迎您的用心访问！
本次分享的博士论文题目是《基于贝叶斯网络的农超对接供应链风险预警模型研究》，本期将学习第二章内容，一起来看看吧！
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Dear you, this is LearningYard Academy!
Today's Xiaobian to share with you is the paper intensive reading series 15. Welcome to your attentive visit!
The title of the doctoral thesis shared this time is "Research on the Risk Early Warning Model of Agricultural Super Docking Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Network", and this issue will learn the content of the second chapter, let's take a look!
本章主要介绍了三个部分的理论基础，第一部分是关于“农超对接”供应链的相关理论，详细介绍了我国“农超对接”供应链的对接模式和主体要素；第二部分介绍供应链风险管理相关理论，包括供应链风险管理和农产品供应链风险管理的概述；第三部分是介绍贝叶斯网络相关理论，对贝叶斯定理以及贝叶斯网络的原理进行了详细概述。
This chapter mainly introduces the theoretical basis of three parts, the first part is about the relevant theory of the "agricultural super docking" supply chain, and introduces in detail the docking mode and main elements of the "agricultural super docking" supply chain in China; The second part introduces the theories related to supply chain risk management, including an overview of supply chain risk management and agricultural product supply chain risk management; The third part is an introduction to bayesian network correlation theory, providing a detailed overview of Bayes' theorem and the principles of Bayesian networks.
首先来看“农超对接”相关理论部分，作者介绍了几种常见的模式，包含“生产基地/合作社+农资公司+超市+消费者”、“大型企业（基地）型”、“大型企业（基地）+超市的模式”、“合作社型”、“农民专业合作社+超市+消费者”。
First of all, looking at the relevant theoretical part of "agricultural super docking", the author introduces several common models, including "production base / cooperative + agricultural company + supermarket + consumer", "large enterprise (base) type", "large enterprise (base) + supermarket model", "cooperative type", "farmers' professional cooperative + supermarket + consumer".
农超对接”供应链包含三个主体要素：超市、农民专业合作社、消费者。其中，超市是“农超对接”供应链中发挥着承上启下作用的重要主体要素；农民专业合作社是“农超对接”供应链的参与者；消费者是“农超对接”供应链末端的主体要素。
The supply chain of "Agricultural Super Docking" contains three main elements: supermarkets, farmers' professional cooperatives, and consumers. Among them, supermarkets are an important main element that plays a role in the supply chain of "agricultural super docking"; Farmers' professional cooperatives are participants in the supply chain of "agricultural super docking"; Consumers are the main element at the end of the supply chain of "agricultural super docking".
对于供应链风险管理的定义，许多学者给出了不同的定义。作者认为：供应链风险是在供应链运行过程中导致供应链的运行效率降低、运行成本增加或者造成损失，甚至导致供应链断裂或无法正常运转的不确定因素或意外事件。
For the definition of supply chain risk management, many scholars have given different definitions. The author believes that supply chain risk is an uncertain factor or unexpected event that leads to the reduction of the operational efficiency of the supply chain, the increase of operating costs or losses, and even the rupture or inability of the supply chain to operate normally during the operation of the supply chain.
由于供应链结构的独特性，供应链风险也具备独特性：二律背反性、传递性、动态性。
Due to the uniqueness of the supply chain structure, the supply chain risk is also unique: the two laws are reversed, transmittal, and dynamic.
最后，作者对贝叶斯网络进行了概述。贝叶斯定理的核心思想是将概率分布的已知判断（先验概率）和证据信息转换成后验概率，简单来说贝叶斯定理是先验概率向后验概率的转换。
Finally, the author provides an overview of bayesian networks. The core idea of Bayes' theorem is to convert known judgments (prior probabilities) and evidentiary information of probability distributions into posterior probabilities, which is simply bayesian theorem is the conversion of prior probabilities to posterior probabilities.
贝叶斯网络又称作贝叶斯信念网络，是一种多元知识可视化概率知识表达和推理模型。相比于其他决策模型，贝叶斯网络具有非常强大的不确定性问题处理能力，其使用条件概率来表达要素之间的关系，能够在有限不确定的信息条件下进行学习和推理，还能够将先验知识和新接收信息等纳入网络中，实现多源信息的有效表达和融合。
Bayesian network, also known as Bayesian belief network, is a multivariate knowledge visualization probability knowledge expression and reasoning model. Compared with other decision models, Bayesian networks have very strong uncertainty problem processing capabilities, which use conditional probabilities to express the relationship between elements, can learn and reason under limited uncertain information conditions, and can also incorporate prior knowledge and newly received information into the network to achieve effective expression and fusion of multi-source information.
本期的分享就到这里，如果您对今天的文章有独特的想法，欢迎给我们留言，让我们相约明天，祝您今天过得开心快乐！
The sharing of this issue is here, if you have a unique idea for today's article, welcome to leave us a message, let us meet tomorrow, I wish you a happy and happy day!
[1]李兴江.基于前景理论的不确定犹豫模糊多属性决策方法研究.
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